As Osun State prepares to elect a new governor on Saturday, 15 August 2026, civil society group Yiaga Africa has raised serious concerns that vote-buying and escalating violence could undermine the credibility of the last major governorship poll before Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
In its pre-election statement jointly signed by Dr. Asmau Maikudi, Chair of the 2026 Osun Election Observation Mission, and Samson Itodo, Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, the group’s Watching The Vote (WTV) initiative warned that the election will serve as a critical test of the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) operational readiness, the neutrality of security agencies, and public trust in a tense and competitive environment.
It will also provide an early assessment of key provisions introduced under the Electoral Act 2026, including the use of downloadable Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) for accreditation and the electronic management and validation of polling-unit results.
With 2,339,233 registered voters expected to participate across 3,763 polling units in the state’s 30 local government areas, INEC says it has deployed 4,427 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) devices for the election.
However, Yiaga Africa warned that preparations should ultimately be judged by performance on election day.
PVC collection was reportedly disrupted in Odo-Otin and Ife Central LGAs, raising concerns about potential voter disenfranchisement. Although INEC announced that affected voters would be able to download electronic PVCs, limited access to digital services could prevent some eligible voters from benefiting from the alternative.
The group documented the distribution of money and gift items by political actors in the lead-up to the election. “Although some were presented as social interventions or charitable support, their timing and proximity to campaign activities raise serious concerns about voter inducement and undue influence,” the statement said.
Security Threats Raise Concerns
Security concerns have also intensified ahead of the poll. According to Yiaga Africa, incidents previously linked largely to political rivalry and campaign disputes have increasingly shifted towards direct disruption of electoral activities and contestation over strategic public spaces.
An attack on a PVC collection centre in Odo-Otin, politically linked violence in Osogbo and disputes over motor parks have heightened concerns about the security environment.
The organisation also raised alarm over incendiary rhetoric and hate speech allegedly emanating from political actors, warning that such rhetoric could deepen partisan tensions, legitimise violence and discourage voters from participating.
Yiaga Africa urged security agencies to investigate and prosecute electoral violence, threats and hate speech impartially, regardless of the political status or affiliation of those involved.
BVAS Mock Exercise Exposes Technical Concerns
The organisation also flagged technical challenges uncovered during INEC’s mock accreditation exercise, where some BVAS devices failed to recognise fingerprints, facial features, or older PVC records. Additional pressure has come from the last-minute court-ordered inclusion of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, which forced INEC to reprint ballot papers and result sheets, compressing the timeline for distribution and raising the risk of delayed deployment.
INEC attributed some facial verification failures to an excessively high compatibility threshold affecting older voter data, particularly records that had not been revalidated.
Yiaga Africa warned that unresolved technical challenges could disenfranchise eligible voters, cause delays at polling units and undermine confidence in the election.
Late SDP Inclusion Creates Logistical Pressure
Another complication is the last-minute inclusion of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Dr Francis Olugbenga Ajala, and his running mate, Faseke Babajimi Oladipo, following a Federal High Court judgment directing INEC to include the party on the ballot.
The development required INEC to reprint ballot papers and result sheets, bringing the number of participating political parties to 15.
The revised materials are expected to arrive in Osun on August 13 for onward distribution across the 30 LGAs.
Yiaga Africa said the development has compressed INEC’s timetable for sorting and distributing electoral materials and could increase the risk of logistical errors or delayed commencement of voting.
While acknowledging that INEC must comply with court orders, the organisation warned that late judicial interventions can place significant operational pressure on election management.
Vote-Buying Remains a Threat
Voter inducement is another major concern. Yiaga Africa documented the distribution of money and gift items by political actors. While some were presented as social interventions or charitable assistance, the timing and proximity to the election raised concerns about possible voter inducement.
The organisation urged political parties and candidates to refrain from vote-buying and practices that compromise ballot secrecy.
Uneven Voter Education Could Affect Participation
Although voter education activities have increased since July 1, Yiaga Africa said targeted outreach remains inadequate.
Women-focused voter education was observed in only two LGAs, youth-focused programmes in three, while interventions specifically targeting persons with disabilities were recorded in approximately half of the LGAs.
The organisation warned that pre-election violence, inflammatory rhetoric and distrust in the electoral process could also discourage voters from turning out.
Yiaga Africa Deploys 332 Observers
For election-day monitoring, Yiaga Africa will deploy its Watching The Vote methodology, supported by the European Union under the EU Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria Phase Two programme.
The organisation plans to deploy 300 stationary observers to a representative random sample of polling units, supported by 32 mobile observers across all 30 LGAs.
The stationary observers will monitor accreditation, voting and counting while providing independent verification of the results eventually announced by INEC.
Yiaga Africa will also deploy its Election Result Analysis Dashboard (ERAD 2.0) to independently audit results uploaded to INEC’s Election Results Viewing (IReV) portal.
The platform will monitor the availability, accessibility, downtime, timeliness and completeness of result uploads, as well as the quality of uploaded EC8A result sheets.
Together, PRVT and ERAD 2.0 are designed to provide an end-to-end assessment of the election—from what happens at polling units to what INEC eventually publishes as official results.
What INEC and Security Agencies Must Get Right
Yiaga Africa has urged INEC to immediately resolve outstanding BVAS challenges and activate contingency plans for the late distribution of revised election materials.
It also called for stronger coordination within the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security (ICCES), transparent application of the Electoral Act 2026 and unhindered access for accredited observers, party agents and journalists at collation centres.
Security agencies, meanwhile, have been urged to remain neutral and professional, respect the rights of voters, journalists and observers, and sanction personnel who breach the rules of engagement.
The organisation also called for closer coordination between security agencies, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to tackle vote-buying.
Political parties and candidates have been urged to honour the peace accord and restrain their supporters from violence and inflammatory conduct.
A Test Run for 2027
Beyond determining who governs Osun State, the August 15 election carries implications for Nigeria’s wider democratic trajectory.
It will test whether INEC can successfully deploy new electoral technologies and operate within the framework of the Electoral Act 2026. It will test whether security agencies can protect voters without becoming perceived political actors. And it will test whether political parties can compete fiercely without undermining the electoral process.
For voters, the election is ultimately a test of whether their votes can be cast freely, counted transparently and reflected accurately in the final result.
As the last major governorship election before the 2027 general elections, Osun 2026 could offer Nigeria its clearest warning yet about what is working, and what still needs fixing, before the country enters another crucial electoral cycle.
