Security challenges abound in Nigeria, the most populous African country, but among them all, the conflict between farmers and herdsmen seems high and dangerous, reportedly having claimed thousands of lives in the last decade and displacing millions. Families have been compelled to flee homes, abandon crops, and lose livelihoods because of the attacks, which have triggered dire humanitarian consequences. Extending beyond regional borders, it affects the ever-weaker Nigerian state economy.
Normally seen through the lens of ethnicity or religion, this conflict is actually based on climate change. Rising temperatures, desertification, and unpredictable rainfall fuel competition for basic resources and heighten tensions between farmers and nomadic herders.
Climate Change in Nigeria: A Land Under Siege
Nigeria is among countries most vulnerable to the crises of a changing climate. In Nigeria, the UN Environment Programme says, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall are heightening deserts, especially in northern areas, and making land less suitable for crops. According to UNEP, about 351,000 hectares of arable land get lost annually in Nigeria due to desertification.
The Sahara Desert advances at the cost of the Sahel; shrinking herder pasturelands forces these groups to head south. This shift brings herders into direct competition with farmers who rely on fertile land for crop production.
This climatic pressure, along with the rise in population and privatization of lands, has been exacerbating the situation. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that desertification and droughts reduce agricultural productivity, while flooding in southern Nigeria disrupts food security. This dual power of desertification in the north and flooding in the south has heightened food insecurity, affecting millions of Nigerians and further deepening poverty.
Farmer-Herder Crisis: Where Climate Meets Conflict
This scarcity has worsened with climate change, making herders migrate to Central and Southern Nigeria, where the rich soil has become a flashpoint in violent clashes. Desertification in the north has heightened competition for grazing land, leading many times to disputes with farmers over crop damage and water sources.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) describes the violence as having turned out more deadly in the last few years than the Boko Haram insurgency, thus giving an indication of the increasing gravity of the crisis. The UN says around 35,000 civilians have been killed, and two million displaced by the farmer-herders violence across the northeastern region.
But conflicts, which have escalated into clashes in states such as Benue, Plateau, and Taraba, have left hundreds dead and thousands displaced. These are conflicts where nomads and farmers often accuse each other of atrocities that provoke cycles of reprisal violence to destabilize whole regions.
The crisis in Nigeria is complex, involving conflict between farmers and herders, fueled by interwoven environmental, socio-economic, and political causes. While the changing climate has worsened competition for the increasingly meager resources, other vital drivers include failures in governance, population growth, proliferation of small arms, and land privatization. A deep-seated understanding of these factors is vital in formulating sustainable solutions.
Governance Failures: Weak Institutions and Policy Gaps
Poor governance has led to an enabling environment in which the farmer-herder crisis has spiralled out of control. Decades of weak institutional frameworks, the inability to carry out effective enforcement, and ambiguous policies on land tenure have left exposure in communities. For instance, Nigeria’s 1978 Land Use Act, that vested land ownership in state governors has failed in addressing the convolutions of communal rights to land use and ownership.
More so, the absence of machinery for effective conflict resolution has driven communities into self-help largely through armed militias. Reports by the International Crisis Group (ICG) have indicated how such militias, motivated by ethnic or communal loyalties, are keeping alive cycles of reprisal violence. The ICG noted that risks of interethnic conflict are so great in Nigeria it might lead to civil war or even state failure.
Population Growth and Land Privatization
The fast-rising population in Nigeria, projected by the UN to surpass 400 million by 2050, and now over 200 million, has increased the struggle for land and other resources. In fact, with growing rural populations, farms encroach on the traditional grazing routes, thus creating conflicts between farmers and herders. The pressure on land has been further heightened by urbanization and industrialization, which often favor private and commercial land acquisition at the expense of communal needs.
Privatization of communal lands, mostly without adequate consultations or compensation to the local communities, has also disrupted traditional grazing systems. This leaves the pastoralists with limited areas to graze, hence their migration into farming areas.
Small Arms Proliferation: A Catalyst for Violence
The easy availability of small arms has turned what was supposed to be farmers and herders into an extremely lethal conflict. It is believed by the Small Arms Survey that some of the many millions of illicit firearms in Nigeria are used in communal violence.
Porous borders within the Sahel region allowed an inflow of arms that have enabled the farmers and herders to escalate their dispute into armed confrontation. The absence of effective disarmament and border controls further complicated the situation.
Human Costs: Displacement and Food Insecurity
Human life losses because of this conflict are incredibly high. While herder-farmer conflict, according to monitoring provided by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, had displaced an estimated 2 million people of Nigeria, these displaced persons often do not have access to their basic needs of shelter, food, and medication, thereby triggering a humanitarian crisis.
Among the victims of violence between farmers and herders was Mariam Usman, who fled from Plateau State, “We can’t go back to our village. The herders have taken over our land, and the government has done nothing,” she says.
Food insecurity has worsened further, that the farmers ran away and, hence abandoned their crops. This raised food prices, translating into increased poverty levels in this community of poor, vulnerable populations. Economic impacts remain strong in this conflict: the disruptions to the agricultural sector in Nigeria affect most of the vital sectors to its GDP. Humanitarian consequences are hard on the women, children, and elderly. According to World Food Programme (WFP), nutrition rates deteriorate and health problems are increased further among those already displaced populations.
Long-term ramifications of this conflict threaten the economic development in Nigeria and, subsequently, progress towards the achievement of SDGs. These growing violence and displacement have grown to threaten Nigeria’s goals to ensure food security, reduce poverty, and develop sustainable agriculture.
Long-term effects that the conflict would have on the economic development of Nigeria and achievement of the SDGs are very critical, as increasing violence and displacement puts Nigeria’s achievements in food security, poverty reduction, and sustainable agriculture in jeopardy.
Nuanced Case Studies: Benue and Plateau States
States like Benue and Plateau exemplify the intersection of these drivers. Conflicts in Benue usually arise over the use of land, where herders are accused of grazing on farmland and farmers of blocking the traditional grazing routes. In a 2024 incident in Benue, more than 50 people were killed, and farmers fled their fields in fear, again showing the deadly consequences of unresolved disputes.
Other 18 civilians were killed in another attack in Benue’s Katsina-Ala local government area in 2024. This incident has become the latest in a series of attacks that have torn through Nigeria’s northern region, powered by the farmer-herder conflicts in many aspects.
In Plateau, changes in demography and land privatization have combined in an explosive way. Most of the time, where communities are displaced as a result of violence, it becomes very hard for them to reclaim the land, which keeps up tensions. More than 30 people were killed after violence between farmers and herders in Mangu local government area, Plateau State, in January 2024. This further provides a context on how unresolved land disputes in Plateau have perpetuated cycles of violence spanning decades.
Comparative Analysis: Nigeria and the Sahel Region
The farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria is but a reflection of the challenges that beset the Sahel, where resource scarcity, poor governance, and armed violence come together. For instance, in Mali, herder-farmer conflict has been related to land privatization and poorly regulated water resources.
Similarly, in Chad and Niger, climate-induced migration and the lack of grazing corridors have fueled conflicts. However, countries like Chad have implemented community-led grazing management systems, which have reduced tensions. Nigeria could learn from these models by empowering local communities to mediate resource disputes.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has approved to create a Ministry of Livestock Development, and was announced amidst the farmer-herder crisis that has ravaged the country for some time. The Presidential Committee on Implementing Livestock Reform is charged with the repositioning of the livestock industry toward ensuring peace among farmers and herders. This is another step to help in ensuring lasting peace between farmers and herders in the country.
What Are the Solutions?
Addressing the complex interplay between climate change and the farmer-herder conflict requires a multi-pronged approach:
- Governance Reforms: Strengthening land tenure policies and clarifying land rights are essential to reduce disputes. The government must also invest in conflict resolution mechanisms, including community mediation programs.
- Climate Adaptation: Equally important, investment in climate-resilient agriculture, water conservation, and afforestation programs like the Great Green Wall will go a long way toward addressing desertification. This will reduce competition for resources and create a culture of land use that is sustainable.
- Population Management: Investments in family planning and rural development can help manage population growth and reduce pressure on land.
- Disarmament and Security: Enhanced border controls and disarmament programs are crucial to curbing small arms proliferation. Security forces should be trained in how to handle communal violence without adding to tensions.
- Conflict Resolution and Mediation: Local peacebuilding initiatives driven by traditional leadership and local governments can help dialogue and build trust between farmers and herders. It is these efforts that hold the key to diffusing the tensions that most often flare up into violence.
Conclusion
The conflict between Nigerian farmers and herdsmen epitomizes the wider global problem emanating from climate-induced insecurity. A combination of climate change, governance failures, and proliferation of small arms forms a cocktail of factors leading to this kind of volatile situation. Immediate attention toward mitigating the very root causes of the conflict, which includes climate change, poor governance, and competition over resources, is in great need.
The Nigerian experience should serve as a grim warning to other countries facing similar challenges. International support for climate adaptation, coupled with more serious governance reforms, is necessary to ensure that Nigeria and other nations in the Sahel can navigate these crises and build a more secure, sustainable future.
ODEDOSU Mayowa Nurudeen is a passionate and dedicated researcher, political analyst, conflict manager, and social commentator with an unwavering commitment to addressing complex societal challenges. His current research interest focuses on climate change and the intersectionality in gender equality, exploring how these critical issues intersect with governance, security, and sustainable development. Nurudeen has presented his findings at numerous national and international conferences, contributing valuable insights to the discourse on political systems, governance, and social equity.
Beyond academia, Nurudeen is deeply engaged in social impact initiatives through his leadership role at the Fonah Foundation for Humanity. At the foundation, he has spearheaded programs aimed at improving community welfare, promoting education, and empowering vulnerable groups. His work reflects a steadfast commitment to fostering resilience and sustainable development in underserved communities. As a thought leader, Nurudeen frequently participates in public discourse on pressing societal issues, offering insightful commentary on topics such as climate adaptation strategies, gender empowerment, and conflict resolution. His expertise also extends to facilitating peacebuilding initiatives and advocating for policies that promote equitable resource distribution.
In his leisure time, Nurudeen enjoys mentoring young minds, traveling, and exploring innovative solutions to global challenges. He is driven by a vision to make meaningful contributions through research, advocacy, and community engagement, all aimed at building a more inclusive and sustainable world.