PROMAD Foundation, a non-profit organisation that combines evidence-based strategies with civic technology to bridge gaps between grassroots communities and government, has released an in-depth analysis of Nigeria’s 2026 subnational budgets, covering 34 of the 36 states whose proposed budgets have been passed by their respective State Houses of Assembly.
The organisation said the study examines key trends in state spending and assesses what the rising figures mean for development and citizens’ welfare.
According to the analysis, the combined value of the approved state budgets stands at ₦36.98 trillion, representing a 45 per cent increase from the ₦25.58 trillion recorded in 2025. The foundation described the rise as a significant shift in subnational fiscal planning across the country.
PROMAD Foundation noted that the surge in spending reflects growing ambition by state governments to prioritise infrastructure, improved service delivery and development programmes.
“On paper, this growth suggests that states are acknowledging the need to do more to drive economic expansion and improve the quality of life of citizens,” the organisation stated.
The analysis further revealed that 12 states have crossed the ₦1 trillion budget mark, pointing to widening fiscal gaps among states. Lagos State tops the list with a ₦4.44 trillion budget, maintaining its position as Nigeria’s largest subnational economy, while Kano State has entered the trillion-naira category with a budget of ₦1.48 trillion.
A regional breakdown of the figures highlights clear economic contrasts across geopolitical zones. The South West accounts for the highest share of subnational budget allocations, which PROMAD attributes to stronger internally generated revenue and higher levels of economic activity. By contrast, the North East records the lowest share at just 12 per cent of total subnational budgets, despite grappling with poverty, insecurity and a high number of internally displaced persons (IDPs).
While the increase in spending suggests improved revenue confidence driven by higher federal allocations and IGR growth in some states, the foundation warned of potential fiscal risks.
“Large budgets can stimulate local economies, create jobs and close long-standing infrastructure gaps if effectively deployed. However, they also increase fiscal risks where revenue projections are overly optimistic or where debt servicing consumes a growing share of state finances,” PROMAD Foundation said.
The organisation stressed that for ordinary Nigerians, the value of the expanded budgets would not be measured in trillions of naira but in concrete outcomes such as better roads, functional hospitals, quality schools, affordable transportation and healthcare, and access to real economic opportunities.
PROMAD Foundation also underscored the importance of citizen participation and accountability in budget implementation.
“Without participation, transparency, strong oversight and clear links to community needs, increased state spending and weak budget execution could turn these expanded budgets into missed opportunities rather than delivering the dividends of democracy,” the foundation warned.
As the budget move through legislative scrutiny in some states and into full implementation nationwide, PROMAD Foundation said Nigerian would be watching closely. The organisation raised key questions about whether the allocations truly reflect community needs and whether the funds will be deployed efficiently, stressing that the ultimate measure of success will be the real impact of the budgets on the everyday lives of citizens across the states.